CREA ANNOUNCES HOUSING MARKET GAINING EXTREME STRENGTH IN 3RD QUARTER!

MLS® home sales grow stronger in the third quarter
OTTAWA – October 15th, 2009 – National resale housing activity climbed to the highest level of any third quarter on record.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) home sales via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards totalled 135,182 units in the third quarter of 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is the highest level of activity on record for the period from July to September. The number of transactions was up 18 per cent from the third quarter of last year, representing the biggest year-over-year increase since early 2002.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS® home sales numbered 127,941 units in the third quarter, up 12 per cent from the previous quarter. Building on two previous quarterly increases, seasonally adjusted MLS® home sales activity now stands 48 per cent above the low reached in the fourth quarter last year.

"Momentum for sales activity remained strong throughout the third quarter," said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. "Low interest rates, rebounding consumer confidence and an improving overall sense of economic security continue to draw homebuyers to the housing market."

Seasonally adjusted sales activity in the third quarter was up from the previous quarter in over 80 per cent of local markets. Quarterly activity increases in Vancouver (34 per cent), Toronto (11 per cent), and Calgary (19 per cent) contributed most to the national increase in activity.

Some 42,958 homes traded hands via the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada in September 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents an increase of 1.5 per cent from August, and lifts seasonally adjusted activity 63 per cent above the low in January.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS® home sales activity remained strong throughout the quarter. Resale activity in September 2009 posted the fourth consecutive increase from year-ago levels, all of which exceeded 15 per cent. Sales numbered 42,497 in September, up 17 per cent year-over-year and a new record for the month. Year-over-year activity increases in Toronto (28 per cent) and Vancouver (124 per cent) were the driving force behind the increase in actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in September.

Climbing to $327,736, the national MLS® residential average price rose 11 per cent from the same quarter last year. The national average price continues to be skewed upward by a sustained increase in sales activity, including a sharp rebound in activity at the higher end of the price spectrum, in some of Canada’s priciest markets.

The national MLS® residential average price surpassed all previous monthly levels in September 2009, rising 13.6 per cent year-over-year to $331,602. July and August also posted new average price records for their respective months. A number of provinces set new average price records for the month of September, and Ontario posted the highest average price on record.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national MLS® average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national MLS® average sale price was up 9.3 per cent year-over-year in September 2009.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the supply of homes coming onto the MLS® market edged up in the third quarter after four consecutive quarterly declines. Seasonally adjusted MLS® residential new listings were up one per cent from the previous quarter to 199,824 units. The increase reflects a quarterly rise in the number of new listings in British Columbia and Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador. New listings remained stable or continued to retreat in other provinces.

While the small rise in seasonally adjusted new listings suggests that the number of homes coming onto the market may soon begin to edge higher, the number of new listings remains well down from year-ago levels. Barring a sudden unforeseen spike in levels, new listings are likely to remain down from year-ago levels for some time.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) new listings were down 12.5 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2008 after posting year-over-year decreases in each of the previous quarters. Newfoundland & Labrador is the only province in which new listings were up from year-ago levels.

An increase in sales activity and fewer new listings are drawing down inventories compared to year-ago levels. There were 208,215 homes listed for sale on the MLS® Systems of real estate boards in Canada at the end of September 2009, down 16 per cent from a year earlier. This is the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline in active listings, and the largest decline in more than six years.

Nationally, the number of months of inventory was 4.9 months in September 2009. This is down slightly compared to August, and remains well down from the recessionary peak of 12.8 months in January 2009. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The seasonally adjusted residential dollar volume for MLS® home sales increased 20 per cent on a quarter-overquarter basis to $42.1 billion in the third quarter of 2009, the highest level on record. New provincial records were also set in British Columbia and Ontario, which propelled the national figure to a new high.

"Monthly sales activity remained on a strong upward trajectory throughout the third quarter in British Columbia, while showing signs that it may be topping out in other provinces," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. "On balance, this suggests that sales activity may be starting to plateau after having climbed rapidly earlier this year."

"Headline average price increases over the rest of the year are expected to prompt sellers to return to the market after having retreated to the sidelines late last year and earlier this year," he added. "An increase in new listings will help keep a lid on price increases. Price increases over the rest of 2009 and early next year are likely to reflect declining average prices late last year and earlier this year."

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and
national MLS® sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.


For more information, please contact:
Alyson Fair, Publicist
613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
Email: afair@crea.ca

First time home buyers need to take advantage NOW.

Hi everyone...

I wanted to just touch base on the interest rates quickly. Bank of Canada has been placing two articles a week in the National Post and Citizen as well as some of the more popular papers in the Toronto area. It has become recognized that the market is severely improving as the days go by. What does this mean? As the market gains strength again and more homes start selling in shorter periods of time Bank of Canada is going to raise the mortgage interest rates. I think it is important as a Buyer that you understand that you can save thousands of dollars on your mortgage in 5 years by saving a percent on your interest rate. Now is the time to buy. I think if you are looking to make a move or upgrade to a larger home you should consider it now. Not only are you going to get to take advantage of a Sellers market where there is not much available on the market you are also going to get to capitalize on a very low interest rate. Don't wait to long we can only foreshadow so far into the future. Take advantage of what we know today!

If you are looking to purchase a home keep Kemptville, North Gower, Osgoode in mind we have lovely communities out this way and the house prices are very appealing. Logon to www.joeysells.ca to apply to become a vip buyer and lets get shopping!

Kemptville Homes

Hello everyone!

I have just recently logged back into Active Rain. I have recently rejoined the Royal Lepage team in Manotick. I am happy to be back and have been working hard to get myself back to the top of the charts. I wanted to talk about Kemptville homes today. Kemptville is a growing community that has a lot of future plans. We have just recently had a new fire station, police station, as well as a new community centre. Were you aware that one of Canadas top High Schools is right here in Kemptville? St. Michaels Catholic High School is rated in the top 3 best academic schools in Canada.

Kemptville has been going through some big changes in the last 4 - 5 years. We have several new large developments that are underway here. Parkview Homes has introduced two new communities to our town. One is on the Western Edge of town and offers acre - 2acre lots with custom homes available to you. They also have there Van Buren St community that offers many different models and more of a town feeling within walking distance to grocery stores and so on. We also have the Equinelle home project that is located on the Northern edge of town. This is a gorgeous development which surrounds a top class golf course. Equinelle is going to be a real eye catcher in the coming months. We also have our newest community off of Highway 43 the Westerra development which is taking off in high volume. Kemptville has a real promising future I believe and is going to expand to great levels.

Kemptville is also slotted to welcome Wal-Mart to our neighborhood in 2010. They have the parking lots all ready to bring the large store right into our town. It is also supposed to be accompanied by some big box stores as well. This location is right West of the 416 Highway at the County Rd 43 Kemptville exit.

If you are aware of anyone looking to make a move into a rural community that is 30 minutes to downtown Ottawa please do forward me there information. Kemptville is a great community and is surrounded by promising features and great environments for growing children.

www.joeysells.ca - Apply for your VIP Buyer List of homes in Rural Ottawa, FREE ONLINE HOME APPRAISAL

FORECLOSURE AND DISTRESS PROPERTY'S

What seems to be the most inviting deals in the market today are still on the rise. They reported yesterday that they expect Foreclosure Property's to increase in the market place over the next month or two. With them saying that we are on the rise out of the recession this seems to really boggle peoples minds. Why if we are exiting the recession are there still so many people losing there homes? I have sat down and really thought about this and here is my thought. I think that yes our market place in homes is definately on the rise and getting back to where it was 2 years ago. As far as the recession goes I believe we are on our way out of that hole as well. However I think that this recession has really taking an affect on a lot of family's. When you hit the point where you get laid off or your work does cutbacks on your pay or what have you it becomes a large fight to keep your head above water. I think that a lot of family's tried to see that light at the end of the tunnel however as the months went on it became smaller and smaller. Therefore I think the amount of family's whom have lost there homes or are going to lose there homes is just the result of our recession and the money problems it created for so many. We will see some foreclosures come on the market over the next 2 months and that is not the cause of us still being in a recession but more the result of the recession. As everyday passes and our market rises people will start to get back on there feet and once again crawl out of the nasty hole that they got placed into by this recession.

Foreclosure and Distress property's are very popular with Buyers. Why is that? Well the first thought on everyone's mind is WOW we can get a great deal. However there is a little more to it now. Foreclosure property's have to be put on at there market value minus any damages. 10 years or so ago they were put on the market at whatever was owed to the bank plus any legal fees and realtor fees. This is not the case anymore. I think the new way is great because if you lose a 400k house to the bank and you only owe 250k on it when they sell it after everything is said and done there will still be a significant amount of money leftover. Where does this money go you ask? Well it goes back to the owner of the home to give them a jump start at a new life. I think that is great. So many family's lose there home and have to start over. It is bad enough you have just taken a big 7 year hit on your credit bureau let alone having lost a home you owed nearly half the appraised value on. So now the government looks after them. In most cases these homes are financed to the max so in a lot of cases you don't ever see any money.

There are good deals to be found in Estate and Foreclosure property's if you are interested in getting on my automatic notifier list for Foreclosure or Distress property's in Ottawa and surrounding areas feel free to logon to www.joeysells.ca and click the Foreclosure icon. I will get you setup and you could find the next steal!

MORE MARKET PREDICTIONS!

From Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press, October 7, 2009 - 5:42 p.m.
House market bubble could bring quick end to low interest rates
By Julian Beltrame, The Canadian Press


Homes for sale are shown in Oakville, Ont., on Tuesday, April 14, 2009. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada's efforts to spark a rebound in the domestic housing market may be working too well.
A new TD Bank report shows house sales and prices have defied gravity during the severe economic recession and are poised to end 2009 at higher levels than they were before the downturn hit Canada last fall.
"After plummeting by nearly a third in the second half of last year, the seasonally-adjusted level of sales had climbed back by 61 per cent as of August," the report notes. That is more than pre-recession levels.
The paper goes on to say that the average price of homes sold is also rising and will likely end the year at $310,000, or 2.1 per cent higher than at the start of 2009.
Economists credit the central bank's policy of slashing interest rates the past year with reviving a dormant housing market - perhaps too much, too fast - leading to speculation that bank governor Mark Carney may have to reverse course and raise rates earlier than expected.
"We're not calling what we see presently a housing asset bubble," said TD economist Grant Bishop,
"We think it will moderate, but should it fail to moderate, it will no doubt be concerning to the bank."
Talk about exit strategies as the global economy improves has been building for months, particularly since most governments have ramped up spending beyond comfort levels and central banks have cut rates to the bone. Low interest rates, along with a loosening of controls, is largely blamed for the U.S. housing bubble earlier this decade that eventually triggering the global financial crisis.
U.S. Fed officials have recently begun to speculate about the proper time to raise the policy rate from zero, and European Central Bank policy-makers have also sounded more hawkish on interest rates, even though none country has moved to tighten.
On Tuesday, Australia, which never fell into a technical recession, went beyond talk by increasing the policy rate by a quarter point to 3.25 per cent, citing rising home prices in that country as a key concern.
The Bank of Canada has issued what it calls a conditional commitment not to raise its policy rate of 0.25 per cent - the lowest practical level - until at least July, but last week Carney went out his way to stress the pledge had plenty of conditions.
Devoting three paragraphs on the subject in a speech in Victoria, Carney concluded the section by stressing: "In short, it is an expectation, not a promise. If circumstances affecting the outlook for inflation change materially, the conditional commitment would change."
That cautionary language was closely observed by economists, who say it is not out of the question for the bank to start signalling it may start raising rates before its expectations.
But it would take housing prices and sales continuing to soar in the face of higher unemployment and a weak economy to cause the central bank to reverse course, argued Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets.
In a sense, that would be a perverse reaction, he added, since spurring home sales and other interest-sensitive sectors of the economy was what Carney had in mind when he started slashing rates in the first place.
"The bank will take asset prices into account," he said, "but I think they've got to see some pretty convincing signs the broader economy is recovering and recovering on its own before they start to move rates aggressively."
The present signals are going in the opposite direction. The flat growth reading registered in July shows the economic recovery is more fragile than robust, and many say the concerns over a so-called double-dip - where growth slows significantly after an initial brief spurt - have risen.
As well, the Bank of Canada is still dealing with negative inflation and has expressed no concern prices will get out of hand in 2010.
Finance Minister Jim Flaherty also seemed to dismiss talk of an exit strategy from stimulus for Canada, reaffirming Wednesday that the government intends to complete its two-year spending plans outlined in the January budget.
The exit from stimulus will come after that, he said.
"We have to make sure we stop the stimulus spending as planned, at that's at the two year mark. Then the funding will stop," he said.

STRENGTHENING REAL ESTATE MARKET!

Hot real estate could prompt Canada rate hikes: TD
TORONTO (Reuters) - Excessive real estate strength in Canada from ultralow mortgage rates could push the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner or more aggressively than forecast, according to a TD Economics report on Tuesday.
The possibility is worth watching closely, the economics arm of Toronto-Dominion Bank <TD.TO> argued, although it also said the most likely scenario is that the real estate market will moderate and inflation will remain in check.
The Bank of Canada has pledged to keep its interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent until mid-2010, unless it sees a threat of inflation spinning out of control.
TD pointed to recent statements by the central bank that hinted that it would seek to lean against signs of emerging asset bubbles and that it is also monitoring developments in home prices.
In a recent speech, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney deemed the strength in existing home sales as "temporary", reflecting "pent-up demand" and improved affordability.
"The (Bank of Canada's) view at the moment is that the recent resurgence in real estate is temporary, but if it does not moderate in the coming year -- or worse still if price growth accelerates -- it could lead to an earlier and more substantial tightening in policy than currently anticipated," TD economists Craig Alexander and Grant Bishop said in the report on Tuesday.
The economists stressed that the central bank targets the rate of consumer price growth and does not target asset values.
"The key issue is whether the low interest rate environment is creating an economic imbalance that requires a rebalancing of monetary policy," the TD economists said.
Canadian real estate markets have staged a stunning turnaround this year from the end of 2008 when sales and prices retreated sharply. The latest Canadian Real Estate Association data showed August home sales were up 18.5 percent from a year ago, while prices rose 11.3 percent nationally from a year earlier to an average C$324,779 ($306,395).
TD expects sales will cool in the coming months and for price growth to return to a mid-single digit pace after months of pent-up demand and tighter mortgage pricing.
"The base-case economic forecast does not anticipate that hot real estate markets will force the Bank of Canada's hand, but it is a risk worth closely monitoring," the TD economists said.
TD expects the Bank of Canada will begin to gradually lift the benchmark overnight interest rate in the fourth quarter of 2010.
($1=$1.06 Canadian)
(Reporting by Ka Yan Ng; editing by Rob Wilson)

Mortgage Rates.